What could an email popup be worth to my store?
Last updated
Sessions from your Shopify analytics. This alone gives the subscriber counts.
Enter your monthly visits to see how many subscribers a popup could collect.
- Monthly visitsNeeded
- Average order value and the share of subscribers who buyThen
The three capture bands come from a published popup benchmark covering 1.24 billion popup displays, 2025 data, for email capture popups only. Your order value and buy rate are yours, so every money figure is an estimate at your numbers, not a forecast of what any popup will do. The currency is a label and nothing is converted. Check a capture rate you already have.
Nothing you type is sent anywhere. There is no account, no install and no store connection.
The numbers behind the estimate
An email popup is worth the first-order revenue its new subscribers bring in. At 20,000 visits a month, the typical published capture rate of 2.1 percent means about 420 new subscribers, and if 8 percent of them buy at a 70 dollar average order, that is roughly 2,352 dollars a month in first orders.
Capture bands from a published popup benchmark covering 1.24 billion popup displays, 2025 data: the floor of its average band, its published average, and the floor of its top band, for email capture popups only. Order value and buy rate are always your own. If you already run a popup, check its capture rate against the same benchmark.
Three of these are yours and one is published. The published one sets how many subscribers you might collect; yours decide what they are worth.
- Monthly visits
- Sessions on your store in a month, from your Shopify analytics. It stands in for popup displays, so if your popup only shows on some pages or to some visitors, the real display count is lower and so is every figure here.
- Email capture rate
- The share of popup displays that end in a signup. The three bands come from a published popup benchmark: the lower end of the average band (1.5 percent), the published average (2.1 percent), and the floor of the top band (5 percent).
- Share of new subscribers who buy
- Of the people who sign up through the popup, the percentage who go on to place a first order. It is the number that moves the answer most, and it is yours: no benchmark is used for it.
- Value per subscriber
- The first-order revenue one new subscriber is worth on average, at your order value and your buy rate. A subscriber who never buys is part of this average, which is why it sits well below your order value.
- Value per month
- What a month of new subscribers could bring in as first orders, at each capture band. It is revenue, not profit, and it counts the first order only.
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Four stores, three capture rates each
Illustrative stores, not customer data. Every figure comes from the same function the calculator above runs, in US dollars.
| Store | Visits a month | Order value | Buy rate | Per subscriber | Lower end | Typical | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New store, mostly social traffic | 3,000 | $45.00 | 10% | $4.50 | $202.5045 subscribers | $283.5063 subscribers | $675.00150 subscribers |
| Established apparel store | 20,000 | $70.00 | 8% | $5.60 | $1,680.00300 subscribers | $2,352.00420 subscribers | $5,600.001,000 subscribers |
| Large catalogue, higher ticket | 80,000 | $120.00 | 5% | $6.00 | $7,200.001,200 subscribers | $10,080.001,680 subscribers | $24,000.004,000 subscribers |
| Very early storesmall sample | 600 | $30.00 | 12% | $3.60 | $32.409 subscribers | $46.8013 subscribers | $108.0030 subscribers |
Where the estimate runs ahead of reality
A visit is not a popup display
The published rates are measured against popup displays. Frequency caps, page targeting and visitors who leave before the popup appears all mean fewer displays than visits, so treat these figures as an upper reading for your traffic.
Not every subscriber is new revenue
Some people who sign up for a code were going to buy anyway. The first-order figure counts their order too, so the part the popup actually caused is smaller than the headline.
First orders only
The estimate stops at the first purchase. Repeat orders from the list are real and often larger, but they depend on the emails you send afterwards, which this tool knows nothing about.
Revenue, not margin
Every money figure here is order revenue. Discounts given at signup, the cost of goods and payment fees all come out of it before it is profit.
Your buy rate is doing most of the work
A small change in the share of subscribers who buy moves every money figure a long way. If you are guessing that number, the answer is a guess too, and the subscriber counts are the firmer half of the page.
Questions about popup value
What is a good email capture rate for a popup?
In the published benchmark this tool uses, the average popup captures 2.1 percent of displays. Around 1.5 to 3 percent counts as average, 3 to 5 percent as good, and 5 percent or more as top-performer territory. Under 1.5 percent is usually a sign the offer, the timing or the audience needs work.
Why does it show a range instead of one number?
Because nobody knows your capture rate until your popup has run. The same traffic can produce three very different lists depending on the offer and when the popup appears, so the honest answer is the spread from the lower end to top performers, with the published average in the middle.
Where do the capture bands come from?
From a published popup benchmark covering 1.24 billion popup displays, using 2025 data. The lower end is the floor of its average band, typical is its published average, and top performers is the floor of its top band. They cover email capture popups only; no uplift is added for spin wheels or other games.
How do I find the share of new subscribers who buy?
Look at the welcome flow in your email platform and find how many people who entered it went on to place an order, or filter your Shopify customers to those who subscribed through the popup and count how many have one or more orders. If you have no popup yet, run the calculator with a low guess and a high guess to see how much the answer moves.
Should I use sessions or unique visitors?
Sessions, if your popup can show again on a later visit, and unique visitors if it shows once per person. Either way the figure is only as good as the match between what you enter and how often the popup actually appears.
Does this tool need my store, an account or an install?
No. It runs in the page and nothing you type is sent anywhere. The link button puts your inputs in a URL so you can come back to the same result or share it.
The estimate uses published rates. The real number is your own.
Nudgesmart reports impressions, email captures and revenue per signup for the popups you run, so the figures on this page can be checked against your own store.
