What is the probability of each prize on my spin the wheel popup, and what will the prizes cost?
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Weights are relative: 2 comes up twice as often as 1. For shipping or a gift, enter what it costs you.
- Slice 1
- Slice 2
Needed only for percent-off slices, whose cost grows with the basket.
Display only. Your figures are read in the currency you pick — nothing is converted and no exchange rate is applied.
From your sales report, without shipping and tax.
Both optional. Give a low and a high share of codes used and the cost becomes a range.
Over the whole campaign.
Enter at least two slices, each with a prize and a weight. The weights can be any numbers; the calculator turns them into real odds.
- At least two slices with a prize and a weightNeeded
- Average order value, for percent prizesThen
- Expected spins and share of codes usedOptional
Every constant comes from you: no redemption share or spin count is assumed. With no share of codes used, the cost shown is the ceiling, as if every code won were spent. The currency is a label only.
Want to build and play the wheel itself? Use the spin wheel generator. Nothing you type here is sent anywhere.
Weights, prizes and the budget behind them
Spin the wheel probability is the real chance that a spin lands on each prize once the slice weights are compared with one another, so a candle shop that weights 5 percent off at 6, 10 percent off at 3, free shipping at 2 and try again at 4 gives a prize on about 73 spins in 100 and, with a 48 dollar basket, hands out roughly 2.85 dollars of discount per spin if every code gets used.
Every weight, cost and share comes from you. To build the wheel itself, open the spin wheel generator; to see what a single discount does to your margin, try the discount impact calculator.
Each slice needs two things: what it gives away and how heavily it is weighted. The order value, the spin count and the share of codes used are optional, and each one unlocks a further figure.
- Weight
- How likely a slice is compared with its neighbours. Weights of 2 and 1 mean the first slice comes up twice as often as the second. They do not have to reach 100; the calculator shows the real percentage chance for each slice.
- Prize type
- Percent off, an amount off, free shipping, a free gift or nothing at all. A losing slice still takes up room on the wheel and still shapes the odds of every other slice.
- Cost of a win
- What one landing on that slice takes out of your pocket. For a percent prize it depends on the basket, so the order value is needed. For shipping or a gift, type what it actually costs you to send or give, not its shelf price.
- Win chance
- The share of spins that land on any prize at all. A wheel where almost every spin wins feels generous but spends more; one with many near misses spends less and can feel stingy.
- Cost per spin and per 1,000 spins
- What a single spin can be expected to cost you in discounts, with the spins that win nothing already counted in. The 1,000-spin figure shows the same cost at a scale that is easier to budget with.
- Share of codes used
- Optional. Not everyone who wins a code spends it. Enter the lowest and highest share you think is realistic and the cost becomes a range. Leave both blank and the figure assumes every code is redeemed, which is the most it could cost.
- Prize budget
- What the whole campaign can be expected to give away over the spins you expect it to see, shown as a range when you gave a low and a high share of codes used.
Nudgesmart is available on the Shopify App Store. Browse the template library or see what it costs.
Six wheels, their odds and what they give away
Imaginary stores in US dollars, picked to show different prize mixes rather than to suggest targets. The table is produced by the same code as the calculator above.
| Wheel | Slices and weights | Order value | Wins a prize | Per spin | Campaign budget |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candle shop, weights in any units | 5% off (6), 10% off (3), Free shipping (2), Try again (4) | $48 | 73.3% | $2.85 | $14,266.67 over 5,000 spins |
| Apparel store, mostly small prizes | 5% off (40), 10% off (25), 20% off (5), So close (30) | $85 | 70% | $0.94 to $1.64 | $11,220.00 to $19,635.00 over 12,000 spins |
| Pet food, gift and shipping prizes | Free treat bag (30), Free shipping (20), 10 dollars off (10), Next time (40) | $62 | 60% | $1.04 to $1.66 | $8,300.00 to $13,280.00 over 8,000 spins |
| Skincare, every slice wins | 5% off (50), 10% off (30), 15% off (15), Free mini (5) | $54 | 100% | $4.49 | — |
| Furniture store, one rare big prize | 2% off (60), 50 dollars off (10), Free delivery (5), No luck (25) | $640 | 75% | $1.49 to $2.99 | $4,479.00 to $8,958.00 over 3,000 spins |
| Coffee roaster, no order value yet | 10% off (1), Free sample (1), Try again (2) | — | 50% | needs order value | — |
Where the wheel budget can still surprise you
Odds on paper are not odds in the popup
The wheel you publish must use the same weights, or the budget here describes a different wheel. Some wheel apps only accept whole percentages that total 100, so check the rounded figures before you go live.
Percent prizes scale with the basket
A percent prize costs more on a large order than on a small one. If shoppers who win tend to buy more than usual, the real cost of those slices sits above the figure here.
Some winners would have bought anyway
A code used by a shopper who was already going to order is margin given away, not a sale won. This page counts the discount handed out; it cannot tell which orders the wheel caused.
Stacking and minimum spends change the cost
If a wheel code can be combined with a sale price or another code, or needs a minimum order, the true cost per win moves. Set those rules in Shopify before trusting the budget.
The spin count is yours to estimate
The calculator never guesses how many shoppers will spin. Use the spins from a past campaign if you have one, or enter a low and a high case and compare the two budgets.
Spin wheel odds questions
How do I work out spin the wheel probability?
Give every slice a weight and the calculator shows the chance of landing on each slice, as a percentage and as a one in N figure. A heavier slice comes up more often, and the worked examples below show whole wheels with their odds.
Do the slice weights have to add up to 100?
Not here. Type any positive numbers that reflect how often you want each slice to come up. The live wheel preview rounds them to whole chances that total 100, because that is what the popup runtime accepts, and says so when the rounding changed anything.
How much will a spin to win popup cost me in discounts?
Enter what each prize costs you and your average order value, and you get the expected discount per spin and per 1,000 spins. Add the share of codes you expect to be used to turn the ceiling into a range, and a spin count to see the whole campaign budget.
Should every slice on the wheel win something?
It depends on your margin. A wheel where every spin wins costs the most and removes the near miss that makes a spin feel like a game. The worked examples include one of each so you can compare the budgets side by side.
What conversion rate should a spin wheel popup get?
The calculator shows the average gamified popup rate from a published benchmark as context, with its sample and year. It does not grade your wheel against it, because that benchmark publishes an average but no bands.
How should I budget a wheel for Black Friday week?
Traffic during peak weeks is lumpy, so plan two scenarios: a quiet estimate and a busy one. Enter each spin count in turn, keep the prize mix fixed, and note both totals. If the busy total would hurt, lower the weight on your richest slice rather than removing it entirely; rarity keeps it exciting while trimming exposure.
Is anything I type stored or sent?
No. Every figure is worked out in your browser. The share link only carries your inputs, and only if you choose to copy it.
Pricing a wheel is arithmetic. Knowing which codes get spent is the job.
Spin wheels are a campaign type in Nudgesmart, and every code a wheel hands out is reported as displayed, copied and redeemed, so the next budget starts from your own redemption share.
