What could my store sell over the next few months?
Last updated
One amount per line, oldest first. Three to six months is plenty.
Display only. Your figures are read in the currency you pick — nothing is converted and no exchange rate is applied.
Up to 24 months, one per line. The forecast picks up from the last one.
The slowest and fastest month-on-month change you think is realistic. Either can be negative.
A month.
A month.
The band widens the further out you look.
Enter the revenue of your last few months, oldest first, then the lowest and highest monthly growth you think is realistic, and how far ahead to look. The forecast is always a band, never a single number.
- Recent monthly revenueNeeded
- A low and a high monthly rateNeeded
- Months aheadNeeded
No benchmark growth rate is used: both ends of the band are yours. The forecast is a planning range, not a prediction, and it does not know about your seasons or your sale calendar.
Nothing you type is sent anywhere. There is no account, no install and no store connection.
Recent months, a growth band and the horizon
A sales forecast is a band of revenue you might see over the coming months, built from your own recent months and a low and a high growth rate you choose, so an imaginary ceramics studio that took 9,200, 9,800 and 10,100 dollars in its last three months and plans for between flat and 4 percent monthly growth can expect somewhere between 60,600 and 69,673 dollars over the next six months.
No growth rate is supplied: the band is yours. To see how many customers you are keeping month to month, use the customer retention calculator.
Your own revenue history and two rates you are willing to stand behind. The forecast inherits every weakness of those inputs, so choose them with care.
- Monthly revenue history
- Your last few months of sales, oldest first, one amount per line. Three to six months is enough to see your own recent pace. Make sure the latest month is an ordinary one: if it was distorted by a one-off, leave it out, or the forecast inherits it.
- Starting month
- The month the forecast continues from: the most recent one you entered, so the projection picks up where your store is now rather than where it was a few months ago.
- Low and high growth rate
- The slowest and fastest month-on-month change you think is realistic. A rate can be negative. The two must differ, because the answer is always a range and never a single figure.
- Your recent pace
- Shown once you enter two or more months: how fast your own history moved from the first month to the last. It is a reference for picking the band, not a rate the calculator assumes.
- Horizon
- How far ahead to project: three, six or twelve months. The further out, the wider the band gets, which is the honest shape of any forecast.
Nudgesmart is available on the Shopify App Store. Browse the template library or see what it costs.
Forecast bands for five imaginary shops
Fictional businesses in US dollars, each with a growth band it picked for itself. None of these rates is a norm or a recommendation. The table is generated by the code behind the calculator above.
| Scenario | History | Starting month | Band, a month | Horizon | Total forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceramics studio, steady year | 3 months | $10,100 | 0% to +4% | 6 months | $60,600 to $69,673 |
| Supplement brand after a launch | 3 months | $30,400 | +2% to +9% | 3 months | $94,897 to $108,623 |
| Kids clothing, cautious plan | 4 months | $14,400 | -3% to +3% | 6 months | $77,768 to $95,939 |
| Bike parts shop, slowing season | 3 months | $29,800 | -8% to -2% | 3 months | $75,844 to $85,871 |
| Stationery shop, year ahead | 6 months | $7,000 | +1% to +5% | 12 months | $89,665 to $116,991 |
Why a sales forecast drifts
Seasonality is not in the band
Steady monthly growth ignores the gift season, summer lulls and your own sale calendar. If the coming months include a peak, forecast the months around it separately or widen the band.
A launch month is not a pace
Months right after a launch, a viral post or a big press mention often grow fast and then settle. Using them as history can make even the low end of the band too hopeful.
Revenue is not cash
Refunds, chargebacks and payout timing all sit between a sale and money in the bank. For cash planning, take returns off the history before you forecast.
The band is only as wide as you make it
Two close rates give a narrow band that looks precise and is not. If you are unsure, widen the gap rather than narrowing it to feel certain.
Stock and ad spend cap the top end
Growth at the high rate assumes you can buy the inventory and fund the marketing to support it. Check both before planning around the upper figure.
Sales forecast questions
How do I forecast sales for my online store?
Enter your recent monthly revenue, the lowest and highest monthly growth you think is realistic, and how many months to look ahead. The calculator returns a band for each month and for the total. The ceramics studio above, planning for between flat and 4 percent a month, lands between 60,600 and 69,673 dollars over six months.
Why does the forecast come out as a range?
Because any single figure for future sales would look more certain than it can be. Two rates you choose set the edges, and the answer shows the space between them rather than a point inside it.
What growth rates should I use?
Your own. Look at how your recent months moved, which the calculator shows once you enter two or more, then set the low rate to what happens if things stall and the high rate to what happens if your plans work.
Can I forecast a decline?
Yes. Both rates can be negative. A shrinking band is useful for planning stock and spend going into a quiet season, and the page treats it as a scenario rather than a prediction.
Should I use gross or net sales?
Whichever you plan with, as long as every month in the history uses the same one. Net of refunds is closer to what the business keeps.
Is my sales data sent anywhere?
No. The figures stay in your browser unless you choose to copy a link to the result or email it to yourself.
The bottom of the band is where the store lands if nothing changes.
Nudgesmart reports impressions, conversions and revenue per campaign with a comparison against the previous period, so month-on-month movement is visible as it happens.
