Where is my subscription revenue heading?
Last updated
Subscribers paying now and the monthly price they pay.
Display only. Your figures are read in the currency you pick — nothing is converted and no exchange rate is applied.
Zero is fine for a launch.
Your own churn and sign-up figures, held constant across the horizon.
1 to 24.
Enter subscribers at the start, the monthly price, monthly churn, new subscribers per month and how many months to project.
- Subscribers at the startNeeded
- Monthly priceNeeded
- Monthly churnNeeded
- New subscribers per monthNeeded
- Months to projectNeeded
A projection of the numbers you enter, not a forecast. To see what a single subscriber is worth across their whole time with you, use the CLV calculator.
No benchmark churn is used. The currency is a label only and nothing is converted. Nothing you type is sent anywhere.
Subscribers, churn and monthly recurring revenue
Monthly recurring revenue is what your subscribers are billed each month, and it only grows while new sign-ups outnumber cancellations, so a box with 400 subscribers at 24 dollars, 8 percent monthly churn and 60 new sign-ups a month climbs from 11,040 dollars towards a ceiling of about 750 subscribers.
A projection of your own inputs, not a forecast, and no benchmark churn is used. For the value of one subscriber over their lifetime, see the CLV calculator.
Five inputs, all yours. The projection carries them forward month by month and does not add any assumption of its own.
- Subscribers at the start
- Active paying subscribers on day one of the projection. Zero is allowed, for a subscription you are about to launch.
- Monthly price
- What one subscriber pays per month, after any standing subscription discount. For a quarterly plan, enter a third of the quarterly charge.
- Monthly churn
- The share of subscribers who cancel in a month. Take it from your subscription app over the last few months. It is the input the answer is most sensitive to, which is why the result carries a range with churn one point higher and lower.
- New subscribers per month
- Sign-ups you expect each month over the whole horizon. The projection holds it constant; if you are planning a push, run it twice with the before and after figures.
- MRR
- Monthly recurring revenue: the subscribers billed in a month at the monthly price. It is the running rate of the business, not the cash from one-off orders.
- Ceiling
- The subscriber count where the sign-ups each month only replace the ones who cancel. Below it the base grows, above it the base shrinks. A higher ceiling needs more sign-ups or less churn, and more months change nothing.
Nudgesmart is available on the Shopify App Store. Browse the template library or see what it costs.
Five subscription stores projected forward
Invented stores in US dollars, run through the same projection as the calculator above. The ceiling column is where subscribers settle when sign-ups and cancellations balance.
| Store | Months | MRR, first month | MRR, last month | Total billed | Ceiling | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coffee subscription, 400 subscribers at 24 a month8% churn, 60 new a month | 12 | $11,040 | $15,219 | $160,987 | 750 | Growing on these inputs |
| Razor refills, 1,200 at 12, churn above joiners6% churn, 40 new a month | 12 | $14,880 | $11,483 | $156,094 | 667 | Shrinking on these inputs |
| Pet food box, launch from zero5% churn, 80 new a month | 24 | $3,600 | $50,977 | $759,441 | 1,600 | Growing on these inputs |
| Skincare refills, 900 at 30, near balance4% churn, 37 new a month | 12 | $28,110 | $27,980 | $336,486 | 925 | Holding steady |
| Snack club, 250 at 18, high churn15% churn, 30 new a month | 6 | $5,040 | $4,239 | $27,579 | 200 | Shrinking on these inputs |
Why a subscription projection is only a sketch
Churn is rarely flat
New subscribers usually cancel faster in their first months than long-standing ones. A single churn rate spreads that out evenly, so an early projection often looks worse than reality for a mature base and better for a new one.
Sign-ups move with your marketing
The monthly sign-up figure is held fixed, but in practice it follows spend, seasons and launches. Treat the output as what these inputs imply, not as a forecast of what will happen.
Skips, pauses and failed payments
Many subscription apps let customers skip a month or pause, and some cards fail. Those months bill less than the subscriber count suggests. If your app reports billed orders, use that figure for the price or the count.
Revenue is not profit
MRR is billed revenue before the cost of the goods, shipping and fees. A subscription can grow revenue every month while each box loses money; check the margin per box separately.
Price changes are not modelled
The projection keeps one price for every subscriber. A price rise usually lifts MRR and nudges churn up for a month or two; run the calculator at both prices to see the two paths.
Subscription revenue questions
How do I calculate subscription revenue over a year?
Enter your subscribers today, the monthly price, monthly churn, the new subscribers you expect each month and 12 months. The calculator returns the MRR at each milestone and the total billed across the year, with a range for churn one point either side.
What churn rate should I use?
Your own, averaged over the last three to six months from your subscription app. This page does not suggest a typical rate, because churn varies widely with product, price and how easy cancelling is.
Why does my subscriber count stop growing?
Because churn is a share of a growing base while sign-ups are a fixed number. At some point the cancellations each month match the new joiners and the count levels off. The calculator names that ceiling so you can see it before you plan around a figure above it.
Is monthly churn of 5 percent the same as 60 percent a year?
No. Monthly churn compounds on a shrinking base, so 5 percent a month loses about 46 percent of a starting group over twelve months, not 60. Enter the monthly figure and let the projection carry it forward.
Can I use this for a launch with no subscribers yet?
Yes. Enter zero subscribers at the start and the sign-ups you expect each month. The third worked example is a launch from zero over 24 months.
Does the calculator save or send my figures?
No. Everything runs in the page and nothing is sent anywhere. The share link carries only the numbers you typed.
Churn sets the ceiling. New subscribers are the only way through it.
Nudgesmart captures the visitors a subscription needs, with ready-made templates grouped by industry and campaign type, before they leave the store.
